Monthly Barometer Posts

Monthly Barometer January 2020

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer December 2019

To give you a sense of which global issues will shape the months to come, here are the buzzwords that appeared most frequently in the Monthly Barometer and Weekly Selections of 2019 (in no particular order) ...

Monthly Barometer November 2019

Is the recent (slight) improvement in the global economy real and for keeps? Buoyant financial markets and many pundits think so, confident that (1) the un-inversion of the yield curve, (2) the Fed’s three cuts in interest rates, and (3) ...

Monthly Barometer October 2019

The global economy is now in the midst of a “synchronized slowdown” (IMF), or worse: a “synchronized stagnation”. Those who believe that the manufacturing contraction currently engulfing the world’s major economies won’t sooner or later infect the services industry are ...

Monthly Barometer September 2019

  Increasingly, CEOs, investors, and policy-makers confess they are ‘flying blind’ – no one really knows what’s coming next. This might explain why despite 0 or negative interest rates, business investment is falling in many countries around the world (now ...

Monthly Barometer August 2019

  The trade war is like a huge exogenous shock inflicted on the economy – the equivalent of a ‘surprise’ tax hike on consumers that in turn damages sentiments, investments and thus global economic growth. Fully-fledged trade wars are rare ...

Le Baromètre Mensuel, Juillet 2019

L’économie mondiale se trouve dans une situation de plus en plus précaire: en période de ralentissement majeur, avec un risque de récession qui augmente. En Corée du Sud, pays considéré comme un indicateur de la santé de l’économie mondiale, les ...

Monthly Barometer July 2019

  The global economy is becoming precarious: in the midst of a major slowdown, the risk of recession is increasing. In South Korea, the country seen as a proxy for the health of the global economy, exports have fallen for ...

Le Baromètre Mensuel, Juin 2019

Il est de plus en plus évident que le commerce et la géopolitique jouent un rôle clé dans la croissance économique mondiale, en particulier dans le secteur manufacturier et dans les investissements (qui diminuent dans le monde entier). La Banque ...

Monthly Barometer June 2019

It is increasingly evident that trade and geopolitics are throwing a major spanner in the works of global economic growth, affecting in particular manufacturing and investment (both contracting around the world). The World Bank just downgraded its forecast for global ...

Le Baromètre Mensuel, Mai 2019

La guerre commerciale entre les États-Unis et la Chine est le grand sujet économique du moment et le plus grand risque pour les perspectives de croissance globale. La Chine et les États-Unis en souffrent directement (selon la Fed de New ...

Monthly Barometer May 2019

The trade war between the US and China is the current big economic story and the greatest risk to the global economic outlook. It’s hurting both China and the US (where the latest round of tariffs will cost each household ...