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Prediction Markets

When deciding what to do, all investors and business leaders make implicit forecasts about the future. These are based on particular insights, but the challenge is this: how do we ensure that a real insight is distilled into an accurate forecast?

Prediction markets offer a solution: they leverage collective intelligence on a large scale for the benefit of strategic analysis and forecasting. Numerous studies have shown that diverse and dispersed groups of experts and thinkers can harness the “wisdom of crowds” phenomenon and outcompete more homogeneous groups of experts, bound by the traditional confines of groupthink. Indeed: a large crowd of different people with access to different information and whose predictions are pooled will deliver a much better forecast than a single person or expert (however smart), or a small group of very smart people.

“The most heeded futurists these days,” wrote The Economist, “are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probability.”

In order to give its subscribers access to the forecasting power of prediction markets, The Monthly Barometer has formed a partnership with Lumenogic, a company that has pioneered business applications of prediction markets for dozens of leading companies around the world. Lumenogic is led by Emile Servan-Schreiber, one of the world's top experts in prediction markets. 

Lumenogic and The Monthly Barometer offer the two following services:

  1. Experts-Crowd Solutions – Let the Monthly Barometer assemble a custom panel of dozens of domain experts, and give them the task of providing innovative solutions to your problem. Lumenogic’s collective intelligence platform will engage them in a process that quickly converges towards actionable solutions and insights.
  2. Hypermind PredictionsHypermind is a proprietary panel of several hundred elite forecasters recruited and rewarded solely on a performance base. Their insights are aggregated using state-of-the-art prediction market technology issued from research sponsored by U.S. intelligence agencies. Ask a question on any given issue addressed in The Monthly Barometer to Hypermind, and you will immediately start getting accurate probabilities for various outcomes, followed by real-time updates as events unfold.

Should you wish to enquire about any of these services, please contact us at:

Emile and Lumenogic are part of a research consortium called the Good Judgment Project that recently won a geopolitical forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. government. This four-year research project was organized by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) to assess how the wisdom of crowds can be harnessed to “dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts.” The results show that the aggregated predictions of a few hundred amateurs can rival those of intelligence analysts with access to classified information, that what matters in making predictions is less what you know than how you think, and that good forecasting is a stable cognitive skill.

The Hypermind prediction market, created by Lumenogic earlier this year, is the first practical and commercial application of these groundbreaking discoveries. Its predictions in the recent U.S. midterm elections outperformed those of all the big-data statistical models operated by Nate Silver, the New York Times and the Washington Post.